2007 ATP Tennis Posted Record: 1-4 (-$3000.00)
2007 Australian Open Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
Not the kind of start I was looking for on my tennis betting year but I have always been horrendous pre-Aussie Open and now it's time to get things together for the big Slam and start making some money!
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Australian Open - Round 1
Gilles Simon 1.78 over Amer Delic ($1000 to win $780)
The only reason I could think of as to why this line is like this is because Delic beat Simon back at Indian Wells 2006 in the qualifying section of the tournament. Well for those who didn't know yet, Delic has played only 17 times outside of the US and only 4 times outside of Europe. Gilles Simon is by no means one of the most enticing guys to bet on when it comes to the hardcourts but I have to say that I was impressed with his win over Thomas Berdych last year in the Australian Open and I was also impressed that he made it to the Round of 32 as a qualifier. Delic on the other hand made it to the Second Round of last year's tournament but his only win was over Potatito Starace. He then lost in the Second Round to local Nathan Healey and that was that. Prior to the Aussie Open, Delic was entered in the Adelaide Round Robin style tournament where he lost his first match to Chris Guccione in three sets. He was then entered in last week's Sydney qualifying tournament where he lost to Alex Bogdanovic. He has not shown any signs of being in form or shape for this match today. Delic has only played in six lifetime five setter matches while Simon has the experience of playing in 9 five setter matches. My only concern is that Simon is not comfortable on hard courts but his run here last year should have him motivated and beating Delic at these odds sounds pretty damn good. I am going to go with the younger Simon who has to start winning matches like these ones and has to start stamping his name on big wins if he is going to make a name for himself. Last year's Australian Open success was a start but Simon will show today that this was no fluke.
Alun Jones 2.90 over Marc Gicquel ($500 to win $950)
I find it quite odd that a WILD CARD entry would be given these kinds of odds. However, he is Australian and young Australians have typically done well in the first round of the Aussie Open in the past. Well Jones is no rookie to the sport of tennis and this will now be his third try at winning a first round match of his home country's Grand Slam. Marc Gicquel on the other hand is a lifetime journeyman who's highest ever ranking was #50 in the World sometime last year. Gicquel has never made it to the MAIN DRAW of the Australian Open but because of his high ranking, did not need to qualify for this year's tournament which was probably nice for him. However, losing in the qualie to Bjorn Phau, Jean-Rene Lisnard and Zack Fleishman the last three years probably has not done too much to help his confidence. Gicquel has been off since October which is never good when entering a GRAND SLAM event such as this one. The last time we saw him on hardcourts was at the US Open where he made it to the Round of 16 before being bounced by the world #1. I just don't tryst Gicquel on this surface and I don't like the fact that he has not played since October. Jones on the other hand won a set off Ivo Minar last week and beat both Jan Hajek and Gilles Muller the week before. Jones got his biggest win in years when he beat Hajek in Adelaide's Round Robin and I am pretty sure he is going to be ready for one of his biggest wins ever if he can beat Gicquel. I'll take the guys who has been playing more as of late and who is ready.
Igor Andreev 2.05 over Vincent Spadea ($1000 to win $1050)
These two players are a full nine year apart when it comes to age and they have only met once in the past. That was back in 2004 when Andreev won a three-setter in his home tournament of Moscow. Neither player is ranked anywhere near where they have been ranked in the past as both guys were in the TOP 25 at one point but both guys have now dropped right out of the TOP 60. Both players are virtual identical images of each other as they are the same height, have won the same amount of tournaments but once again, Andreev is about nine years younger. Spadea was entered in both the Adelaide and Sydney tournaments this year. In Adelaide, Spadea was somewhat impressive in defeating both Stepanek and Korolev before losing to Pim Pim. However, he lost in the first round the following week to Nikolay Davydenko and that was definitely not the way he wanted to come into this tournament. Spadea is a big fat 0-5 in first round matches of the Australian Open and I don't see why things would change in this match. His four set loss to Fabrice Santoro was pretty damn pathetic last year and it seems like Spadea is starting to have problems with the heat. Andreev comes into this tournament having only played in the Chennai tournament this year. He looked completely uninterested in that tournament losing to Julien Benneteau in the second round but he said it himself that it was simply a tuneup to get his game going. Andreev showed me enough in last year's Australian Open to back him again this year. He reached the Round of 32 by beating both Nicolas Almagro and Raemon Sluiter before losing an exciting five set match against the Dominator. That win in Round 1 last year made Andreev 2-1 in Australian Open opening matches. I really don't like Spadea when he has been in Australia for too long because the heat is a problem for him. Andreev at these odds is too good to pass up and I think he wins this thing in 4 sets.
Jurgen Melzer 2.13 over Ivo Karlovic ($500 to win $565)
Jurgen Melzer was being quite the bitch two days ago when he withdrew from his Sydney Semi-Finals match against James Blake some type of virus. We all know Melzer knew he would lose and wanted to head over to the Australian Open for some more practice time on these courts. Not a problem at all. What I find interesting is that throughout their careers, these two players have met three times and all three times Jurgen Melzer has had no problems with Ivo's big serve. As a matter of fact, Melzer beat Karlovic on Clay, Hardcourt and Carpet and winning here should not be a problem for a guy who is going to be well rested after faking the injury last week. Karlovic comes into this match having played in the Chennai tournament two weeks ago. In Chennai, Karlovic beat some local kid in the first round, then beat Pless in the second round before losing to Carlos Moya in the next round. Prior to that, Karlovic had been out since September with a knee injury, an injury that could easily re-surface this tournament. This will be Ivo's fourth lifetime 1st Round match at the OPEN where he is 1-2 in those mathes. Karlovic was bounced by Uhlirach and Davydenko in the first round the last two years but notched his only main draw win against Mardy Fish in 2004. Melzer on the other hand was very impressive in his Sydney debut last week as he beat Santoro, Guccione and Berdych before withdrawing. Melzer has four main draw matches in the last four years but those matches were all against TOP 20 players. When playing against a non-TOP 20 player at the Australian Open, Jurgen Melzer is a perfect 4-0 and that trend fits the match tonight. Melzer already has the confidence knowing he is playing well this season and the confidence knowing he can always handle Ivo's big serve as he has in the past meetings. Melzer for me.
Juan Monaco 1.73 over Nicholas Mahut ($1000 to win $730)
This will be the first meeting between two players who have had a lot of hype at one point in their careers but who have never cracked the TOP 50 in the world. They are both still somewhat young but they have both been big time underachievers with Monaco being slightly the better player over the few years that we have seen him. Mahut comes into this match having already played in Adelaide and Chennai this year. In Chennai, beat Fallas but got smoked by Sanguinetti in the second round. In Adelaide, Mahut looked even more unimpressive as he lost his first round match to Juan Ignacio Chela in straight sets. Prior to beating the #103 ranked Alejandro Fallas, Mahut has been on an 0-6 run, losing six straight matches since his win over Schuettler at last year's US Open. That would now make him 2-8 in his last 10 matches and I don't like that for him coming into this match. Mahut has only twice made it to the Main Draw of the Australian Open and he is 0-2 in those matches losing to Berdych and Medvedev. Juan Monaco comes into this match having already played six matches this year, all in Auckland last week. Monaco was impressive in qualifying for the main draw of that tournament and even more impressive when he beat Turner and Rochus before losing to Calleri in a good effort three setter. Monaco has clearly recovered from knee injury last year and should be ready to go in this one. This is only his third time playing in the Australian Open. He lost in the first round of 2004 to Mardy Fish in a thrilling five setter. He beat Jean-Rene Lisnard in the first round last year before losing to Grosjean in the second round. I really like Monaco's potential and I was impressed with the way he played last week in Auckland. Great odds here.
Yen-Hsun Lu 2.20 over Simon Greul ($500 to win $600)
Picking a winner in this match is like choosing between two piece of shit but since the odds are favorable, I think I can cap this game down to a few variables that could easily determine the winner and better player of the two. Believe it or not, the two players played against each other at last season's Mumbai even and Greul managed to win that match despite a good effort from Lu. However, that was then and this is now and playing in a Grand Slam event is a lot different than an event in Mumbai. Neither player has ever been ranked higher than 75 in the world so this is actually an interesting match. Greul comes into this match having lost in the qualifying rounds of the Auckland tournament last week. He lost his third match of qualifying to a player ranked #288 in the world which was pretty damn pathetic. The week before, Greul played in Chennai and got smoked by Kevin Kim in three sets. Greul has never played in a first round match at the Australian Open and the fact that he did not have to qualify this year would make this his first time. In 2004 and 2006, Greul lost his first round qualifying match at the OPEN and I have no reason to believe he is going to perform any better in a first round match. Yen-Hsun Lu is not the most enticing player to have money on but he did look good in some challenger events late last year winning the Caloundra tournament and then losing in the Finals of the Kawana tournament. Lu was entered in Chennai but he lost his first round match to an Italian player. Despite losing his only first round match ever at the Aussie Open, I have confidence that Lu is heading in the right direction. He is only 23 years old and he looked good in Aussie Open qualifying last year winning all three matches before losing in the first round of the main draw. At these odds, Lu has a great chance of winning this match and exacting revenge on Greul for his loss back in Mumbai last year. Since that match, Lu has been the much better player.
Paradorn Srichaphan 1.80 over Dudi Sela ($500 to win $400)
The odds for this one look like a bettor trap and a half which is why I am keeping the stakes on low on this one and approaching with caution. I can't stay away because of the value in the odds but I also have to try and understand why odds would be like for a match between the #202 player in the world playing against the #54 player in the world. It could be that Sela has a lot of hype attached to his name and it could be that he was impressive in the qualies for this tournament. But other than that, I guess someone out there thinks Paradorn is done and his chances of winning this match are not that good. Dudi Sela comes into this match having only played in the qualifying tournament this year. We last saw him before that in the Maui Challenger event last year where he won his first two matches before losing in the quarter-finals of the tournament. I guess some of the oddsmakers were impressed with his qualifying wins over Mertl, Pashanski and Tourte. He won those matches while dropping only one set in three matches and beating Pashanski alone makes it an impressive run. However, the only way he wins this match is if Paradorn has problems with the wrist that hampered him in last week's opening round match in Syndey. Srichaphan said he is alright to go at the Open and the wrist should be fine. This could be the reason the odds are so good. Paradorn looked weak in Chennai when he lost to Koubek but it could have been that same wrist bothering him in that tournament as well. Paradorn has been playing in the Australian Open and the main draw since the year 2000. He has played in 7 first round mathes and won four of those matches. However, his three first round losses were all to guys ranked in the TOP 80 players in the world and Sela is not ranked in the TOP 200. I think Paradorn has shown enough fight over the years that he can pull off this match with or without a bad wrist. As long as he doesn't let it go more than 4 sets, he should have this one in the bag.
Thomas Johansson 1.73 over Marco Chiudinelli ($1000 to win $730)
Thomas Johansson is not getting any younger, he is not winning that many matches but he still does have some of that Grand Slam magic of years past and that is the only reason I am betting on him here. All he really has to do to cash in on this first round match is make sure doesn't get embarassed by the #146 ranked player in the world. Marco Chiudinelli is a young Swiss player who has never really blossomed despite talks of a decent game and the highest he has ever been ranked has been #129 back in 2005. I know it's tough for some of you to bet on a old man like Johansson that looks like a complete douchebag but like I said before, I would not want to go against him because even though he might be slower and can't move as well as he used to, winning tennis matches is also about using your head and winning points on sheer smarts. Chiudinelli comes into this match having looked impressive in qualifying and looking impressive two weeks ago in Doha. Chiudinelli made it to the Round of 16 in Doha before being bounced by Max Mirnyi but not before recording decent wins over a bunch of guys ranked 186 and higer. Not so impressive after all. In qualifying for the Aussie Open, Chiudinelli beat players ranked 603, 207 and 119 in the world which still doesn't do much for me. In 2005 and 2003, the young Swiss lost both times in the first round of Aussie Open qualifying and this being his first ever main draw match, I think nerves are going to be a problem. Tojo comes into this match having only played one match all year and that was a first round loss to El Aynaoui in Doha two weeks ago. However, I went against Tojo in the first round of last year's open and what a mistake that ended up being. Not only did he win that first round match but he also made it to the Round of 16 before losing to Ivan Ljubicic. Johansson is the 2002 defending champion of this tournament, the crowd loves him here and he is 6-1 in first round matches in his career. I don't see how Chiudinelli would have any chance of winning this match against the crowd favorite.
Teimuraz Gabashvili 1.76 over Lukas Dlouhy ($1000 to win $760)
This is my 9th and final wager of this huge opening round Sunday Night and hopefully it is a big winner. I am not a huge fan of betting on players ranked outside of the TOP 100 (although Dlouhy is 99 right now) but the value seems good and I have seen a few too many people already on Dlouhy for this match. This will be the third lifetime meeting between these two players as they have faced each other in the past in Challenger events. Gabashvili won on the clay courts while Dlouhy beat him last year on the indoor hardcourt. Both players reached their all-time high rankings in 2006 but have both since dropped off and I don't expect it to take too long for one of them to regain form and head back in the right direction. I would have to say that Gabashvili is by far the better of the two players when it comes to playing on hardcourts but for whateve reason, he lost to Dlouhy on the indoor surface last year. Dlouhy comes into this match having lost his only two matches of the 2007 season. He lost to Pim Pim in straight sets in Adelaide and then lost to Andreas Seppi in three sets of the opening round in Sydney last week. Dlouhy does have the advantage that he played all the way up until November but this is the real deal and we'll see if he is ready. Dlouhy played here in 2005 where he lost in the first round of qualifying and then lost in the first round here in 2006 dropping his match against Phillip Kohlschreiber in three straight sets. Not a guy you want to have money on here. Gabashvili on the other hand is an enticing wager here and I say that because althought he lost both his matches prior to qualies for this tournament, he made up for those losses by winning all three qualifying matches. In qualies, he beat players ranked 373, 239 and 143. However, he did it by dropping only one set along the way and he looked good in most of his matches. Gabashvili is playing in his first ever Main Draw at the Open as he lost to eventual surprise player Marcos Bagdhatis in the first round of the 2005 qualifying tournament. Nonetheless, this should be an exciting match and I think Gabashvili is going to get the job done on a surface where he surely has the advantage. Dlouhy has never won an opening round match of a Grand Slam hardcourt tournament. Nuff said.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
2007 Australian Open Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
Not the kind of start I was looking for on my tennis betting year but I have always been horrendous pre-Aussie Open and now it's time to get things together for the big Slam and start making some money!
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Australian Open - Round 1
Gilles Simon 1.78 over Amer Delic ($1000 to win $780)
The only reason I could think of as to why this line is like this is because Delic beat Simon back at Indian Wells 2006 in the qualifying section of the tournament. Well for those who didn't know yet, Delic has played only 17 times outside of the US and only 4 times outside of Europe. Gilles Simon is by no means one of the most enticing guys to bet on when it comes to the hardcourts but I have to say that I was impressed with his win over Thomas Berdych last year in the Australian Open and I was also impressed that he made it to the Round of 32 as a qualifier. Delic on the other hand made it to the Second Round of last year's tournament but his only win was over Potatito Starace. He then lost in the Second Round to local Nathan Healey and that was that. Prior to the Aussie Open, Delic was entered in the Adelaide Round Robin style tournament where he lost his first match to Chris Guccione in three sets. He was then entered in last week's Sydney qualifying tournament where he lost to Alex Bogdanovic. He has not shown any signs of being in form or shape for this match today. Delic has only played in six lifetime five setter matches while Simon has the experience of playing in 9 five setter matches. My only concern is that Simon is not comfortable on hard courts but his run here last year should have him motivated and beating Delic at these odds sounds pretty damn good. I am going to go with the younger Simon who has to start winning matches like these ones and has to start stamping his name on big wins if he is going to make a name for himself. Last year's Australian Open success was a start but Simon will show today that this was no fluke.
Alun Jones 2.90 over Marc Gicquel ($500 to win $950)
I find it quite odd that a WILD CARD entry would be given these kinds of odds. However, he is Australian and young Australians have typically done well in the first round of the Aussie Open in the past. Well Jones is no rookie to the sport of tennis and this will now be his third try at winning a first round match of his home country's Grand Slam. Marc Gicquel on the other hand is a lifetime journeyman who's highest ever ranking was #50 in the World sometime last year. Gicquel has never made it to the MAIN DRAW of the Australian Open but because of his high ranking, did not need to qualify for this year's tournament which was probably nice for him. However, losing in the qualie to Bjorn Phau, Jean-Rene Lisnard and Zack Fleishman the last three years probably has not done too much to help his confidence. Gicquel has been off since October which is never good when entering a GRAND SLAM event such as this one. The last time we saw him on hardcourts was at the US Open where he made it to the Round of 16 before being bounced by the world #1. I just don't tryst Gicquel on this surface and I don't like the fact that he has not played since October. Jones on the other hand won a set off Ivo Minar last week and beat both Jan Hajek and Gilles Muller the week before. Jones got his biggest win in years when he beat Hajek in Adelaide's Round Robin and I am pretty sure he is going to be ready for one of his biggest wins ever if he can beat Gicquel. I'll take the guys who has been playing more as of late and who is ready.
Igor Andreev 2.05 over Vincent Spadea ($1000 to win $1050)
These two players are a full nine year apart when it comes to age and they have only met once in the past. That was back in 2004 when Andreev won a three-setter in his home tournament of Moscow. Neither player is ranked anywhere near where they have been ranked in the past as both guys were in the TOP 25 at one point but both guys have now dropped right out of the TOP 60. Both players are virtual identical images of each other as they are the same height, have won the same amount of tournaments but once again, Andreev is about nine years younger. Spadea was entered in both the Adelaide and Sydney tournaments this year. In Adelaide, Spadea was somewhat impressive in defeating both Stepanek and Korolev before losing to Pim Pim. However, he lost in the first round the following week to Nikolay Davydenko and that was definitely not the way he wanted to come into this tournament. Spadea is a big fat 0-5 in first round matches of the Australian Open and I don't see why things would change in this match. His four set loss to Fabrice Santoro was pretty damn pathetic last year and it seems like Spadea is starting to have problems with the heat. Andreev comes into this tournament having only played in the Chennai tournament this year. He looked completely uninterested in that tournament losing to Julien Benneteau in the second round but he said it himself that it was simply a tuneup to get his game going. Andreev showed me enough in last year's Australian Open to back him again this year. He reached the Round of 32 by beating both Nicolas Almagro and Raemon Sluiter before losing an exciting five set match against the Dominator. That win in Round 1 last year made Andreev 2-1 in Australian Open opening matches. I really don't like Spadea when he has been in Australia for too long because the heat is a problem for him. Andreev at these odds is too good to pass up and I think he wins this thing in 4 sets.
Jurgen Melzer 2.13 over Ivo Karlovic ($500 to win $565)
Jurgen Melzer was being quite the bitch two days ago when he withdrew from his Sydney Semi-Finals match against James Blake some type of virus. We all know Melzer knew he would lose and wanted to head over to the Australian Open for some more practice time on these courts. Not a problem at all. What I find interesting is that throughout their careers, these two players have met three times and all three times Jurgen Melzer has had no problems with Ivo's big serve. As a matter of fact, Melzer beat Karlovic on Clay, Hardcourt and Carpet and winning here should not be a problem for a guy who is going to be well rested after faking the injury last week. Karlovic comes into this match having played in the Chennai tournament two weeks ago. In Chennai, Karlovic beat some local kid in the first round, then beat Pless in the second round before losing to Carlos Moya in the next round. Prior to that, Karlovic had been out since September with a knee injury, an injury that could easily re-surface this tournament. This will be Ivo's fourth lifetime 1st Round match at the OPEN where he is 1-2 in those mathes. Karlovic was bounced by Uhlirach and Davydenko in the first round the last two years but notched his only main draw win against Mardy Fish in 2004. Melzer on the other hand was very impressive in his Sydney debut last week as he beat Santoro, Guccione and Berdych before withdrawing. Melzer has four main draw matches in the last four years but those matches were all against TOP 20 players. When playing against a non-TOP 20 player at the Australian Open, Jurgen Melzer is a perfect 4-0 and that trend fits the match tonight. Melzer already has the confidence knowing he is playing well this season and the confidence knowing he can always handle Ivo's big serve as he has in the past meetings. Melzer for me.
Juan Monaco 1.73 over Nicholas Mahut ($1000 to win $730)
This will be the first meeting between two players who have had a lot of hype at one point in their careers but who have never cracked the TOP 50 in the world. They are both still somewhat young but they have both been big time underachievers with Monaco being slightly the better player over the few years that we have seen him. Mahut comes into this match having already played in Adelaide and Chennai this year. In Chennai, beat Fallas but got smoked by Sanguinetti in the second round. In Adelaide, Mahut looked even more unimpressive as he lost his first round match to Juan Ignacio Chela in straight sets. Prior to beating the #103 ranked Alejandro Fallas, Mahut has been on an 0-6 run, losing six straight matches since his win over Schuettler at last year's US Open. That would now make him 2-8 in his last 10 matches and I don't like that for him coming into this match. Mahut has only twice made it to the Main Draw of the Australian Open and he is 0-2 in those matches losing to Berdych and Medvedev. Juan Monaco comes into this match having already played six matches this year, all in Auckland last week. Monaco was impressive in qualifying for the main draw of that tournament and even more impressive when he beat Turner and Rochus before losing to Calleri in a good effort three setter. Monaco has clearly recovered from knee injury last year and should be ready to go in this one. This is only his third time playing in the Australian Open. He lost in the first round of 2004 to Mardy Fish in a thrilling five setter. He beat Jean-Rene Lisnard in the first round last year before losing to Grosjean in the second round. I really like Monaco's potential and I was impressed with the way he played last week in Auckland. Great odds here.
Yen-Hsun Lu 2.20 over Simon Greul ($500 to win $600)
Picking a winner in this match is like choosing between two piece of shit but since the odds are favorable, I think I can cap this game down to a few variables that could easily determine the winner and better player of the two. Believe it or not, the two players played against each other at last season's Mumbai even and Greul managed to win that match despite a good effort from Lu. However, that was then and this is now and playing in a Grand Slam event is a lot different than an event in Mumbai. Neither player has ever been ranked higher than 75 in the world so this is actually an interesting match. Greul comes into this match having lost in the qualifying rounds of the Auckland tournament last week. He lost his third match of qualifying to a player ranked #288 in the world which was pretty damn pathetic. The week before, Greul played in Chennai and got smoked by Kevin Kim in three sets. Greul has never played in a first round match at the Australian Open and the fact that he did not have to qualify this year would make this his first time. In 2004 and 2006, Greul lost his first round qualifying match at the OPEN and I have no reason to believe he is going to perform any better in a first round match. Yen-Hsun Lu is not the most enticing player to have money on but he did look good in some challenger events late last year winning the Caloundra tournament and then losing in the Finals of the Kawana tournament. Lu was entered in Chennai but he lost his first round match to an Italian player. Despite losing his only first round match ever at the Aussie Open, I have confidence that Lu is heading in the right direction. He is only 23 years old and he looked good in Aussie Open qualifying last year winning all three matches before losing in the first round of the main draw. At these odds, Lu has a great chance of winning this match and exacting revenge on Greul for his loss back in Mumbai last year. Since that match, Lu has been the much better player.
Paradorn Srichaphan 1.80 over Dudi Sela ($500 to win $400)
The odds for this one look like a bettor trap and a half which is why I am keeping the stakes on low on this one and approaching with caution. I can't stay away because of the value in the odds but I also have to try and understand why odds would be like for a match between the #202 player in the world playing against the #54 player in the world. It could be that Sela has a lot of hype attached to his name and it could be that he was impressive in the qualies for this tournament. But other than that, I guess someone out there thinks Paradorn is done and his chances of winning this match are not that good. Dudi Sela comes into this match having only played in the qualifying tournament this year. We last saw him before that in the Maui Challenger event last year where he won his first two matches before losing in the quarter-finals of the tournament. I guess some of the oddsmakers were impressed with his qualifying wins over Mertl, Pashanski and Tourte. He won those matches while dropping only one set in three matches and beating Pashanski alone makes it an impressive run. However, the only way he wins this match is if Paradorn has problems with the wrist that hampered him in last week's opening round match in Syndey. Srichaphan said he is alright to go at the Open and the wrist should be fine. This could be the reason the odds are so good. Paradorn looked weak in Chennai when he lost to Koubek but it could have been that same wrist bothering him in that tournament as well. Paradorn has been playing in the Australian Open and the main draw since the year 2000. He has played in 7 first round mathes and won four of those matches. However, his three first round losses were all to guys ranked in the TOP 80 players in the world and Sela is not ranked in the TOP 200. I think Paradorn has shown enough fight over the years that he can pull off this match with or without a bad wrist. As long as he doesn't let it go more than 4 sets, he should have this one in the bag.
Thomas Johansson 1.73 over Marco Chiudinelli ($1000 to win $730)
Thomas Johansson is not getting any younger, he is not winning that many matches but he still does have some of that Grand Slam magic of years past and that is the only reason I am betting on him here. All he really has to do to cash in on this first round match is make sure doesn't get embarassed by the #146 ranked player in the world. Marco Chiudinelli is a young Swiss player who has never really blossomed despite talks of a decent game and the highest he has ever been ranked has been #129 back in 2005. I know it's tough for some of you to bet on a old man like Johansson that looks like a complete douchebag but like I said before, I would not want to go against him because even though he might be slower and can't move as well as he used to, winning tennis matches is also about using your head and winning points on sheer smarts. Chiudinelli comes into this match having looked impressive in qualifying and looking impressive two weeks ago in Doha. Chiudinelli made it to the Round of 16 in Doha before being bounced by Max Mirnyi but not before recording decent wins over a bunch of guys ranked 186 and higer. Not so impressive after all. In qualifying for the Aussie Open, Chiudinelli beat players ranked 603, 207 and 119 in the world which still doesn't do much for me. In 2005 and 2003, the young Swiss lost both times in the first round of Aussie Open qualifying and this being his first ever main draw match, I think nerves are going to be a problem. Tojo comes into this match having only played one match all year and that was a first round loss to El Aynaoui in Doha two weeks ago. However, I went against Tojo in the first round of last year's open and what a mistake that ended up being. Not only did he win that first round match but he also made it to the Round of 16 before losing to Ivan Ljubicic. Johansson is the 2002 defending champion of this tournament, the crowd loves him here and he is 6-1 in first round matches in his career. I don't see how Chiudinelli would have any chance of winning this match against the crowd favorite.
Teimuraz Gabashvili 1.76 over Lukas Dlouhy ($1000 to win $760)
This is my 9th and final wager of this huge opening round Sunday Night and hopefully it is a big winner. I am not a huge fan of betting on players ranked outside of the TOP 100 (although Dlouhy is 99 right now) but the value seems good and I have seen a few too many people already on Dlouhy for this match. This will be the third lifetime meeting between these two players as they have faced each other in the past in Challenger events. Gabashvili won on the clay courts while Dlouhy beat him last year on the indoor hardcourt. Both players reached their all-time high rankings in 2006 but have both since dropped off and I don't expect it to take too long for one of them to regain form and head back in the right direction. I would have to say that Gabashvili is by far the better of the two players when it comes to playing on hardcourts but for whateve reason, he lost to Dlouhy on the indoor surface last year. Dlouhy comes into this match having lost his only two matches of the 2007 season. He lost to Pim Pim in straight sets in Adelaide and then lost to Andreas Seppi in three sets of the opening round in Sydney last week. Dlouhy does have the advantage that he played all the way up until November but this is the real deal and we'll see if he is ready. Dlouhy played here in 2005 where he lost in the first round of qualifying and then lost in the first round here in 2006 dropping his match against Phillip Kohlschreiber in three straight sets. Not a guy you want to have money on here. Gabashvili on the other hand is an enticing wager here and I say that because althought he lost both his matches prior to qualies for this tournament, he made up for those losses by winning all three qualifying matches. In qualies, he beat players ranked 373, 239 and 143. However, he did it by dropping only one set along the way and he looked good in most of his matches. Gabashvili is playing in his first ever Main Draw at the Open as he lost to eventual surprise player Marcos Bagdhatis in the first round of the 2005 qualifying tournament. Nonetheless, this should be an exciting match and I think Gabashvili is going to get the job done on a surface where he surely has the advantage. Dlouhy has never won an opening round match of a Grand Slam hardcourt tournament. Nuff said.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
